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As I write this, the hot weather is beginning to ebb and I look outside to see a bright, crisp fall day in Tennessee. The first thought that comes to mind is “Man, this has been a really weird year.” Not only in terms of real estate market activities but also in terms of the general economy as well. I can’t really describe it, except to say that for almost the entire year the atmosphere in my world has been one of uneasiness – almost a feeling of everyone holding their breath and waiting for the other shoe to drop.

Definitely the first time homebuyer incentive has helped the market this summer but as we know that program is set to expire at the end of November. Just a final nudge: if you qualify, you only have a few short weeks to find a home AND close on it. It must be completed by the end of next month. There is some discussion of extending the program on into next year, and there are even some rumblings about broadening the program to make it available to every potential homebuyer. I personally see two major roadblocks that lead me to believe it will never happen: (1) the government is flat broke and in hock to China up to its ears (or rather OUR ears), and (2) if they make it available to everyone they lose the political clout it brings with one of their primary constituencies – the lower income first time home buyer.

Regardless any political feelings, you have to ask if there has ever been an instance where the government ever really did anything to truly help the economy out of pure motives. It’s always tied to political influence peddling and is usually a poorly veiled attempt at garnering more votes. Let me illustrate: when the program first started, it was $7500 to first time home buyers with very strict qualifications and very finite timelines. Then a bill was introduced by a certain democratic senator who has always been successful at working both sides of the isle to get things done for the good of the people. His bill increased it to $15000 and made it available to everyone. However, in a magnificent example of lunacy, the democratic leadership knocked the benefit down to $8000 and restricted it to first time home buyers. Why? Because the senator who introduced the bill had in the past crossed over the isle to vote with republicans on a different bill that the democratic leadership opposed. So they used their oversight of the bill as a way to punish the senator, and the needs of the American people being completely irrelevant. How’s that for representation of the people, by the people and FOR the people???

I could rant for days about the political climate affecting the economic conditions in this country, but the point is that as long as this type of environment exists, it is even more impossible than usual to predict how the real estate market will be affected. All we can do is look at the historical numbers and see that the trend lines are running in a similar pattern to years past.

Here is a numerical summary month to month of the key figures we track:

Number of Units Sold August September

Greater Nashville 2064 1935

Williamson County 215 197

Median Home Price August September

Greater Nashville $160,000 $160,000

Williamson County $352,072 $330,000

Inventory Comparison August September

Greater Nashville 14,828 14,461

Hopefully this gives the reader some insight into what is happening in this area. While it is truly impossible to predict the future, one can say with certainty that our local market is convulsing because of the general economic climate. To delve further into the whys and wherefores involves an analysis of the strength of the dollar versus other currencies, general monetary policy, government incentives and a whole lot of stuff that I don’t have the space to discuss here.

People ask me daily what the market is doing, and I tell them I love this business. Every day is a new adventure. Best wishes!